A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
